Productivity Report Review of NDIS Costs
E&OE
Subjects: Productivity Report Review of NDIS Costs
ANDREW PROBYN:
Minister, let’s look at the ambition of the NDIS. It’s meant to have 475,000 people on its books by 2019-20. The Productivity Commission notes that the scale, pace and nature of the changes are unprecedented. Is the ambition unrealistic?
MINISTER PORTER:
Well, I think that the Productivity Commission says as much.
They noted that originally the estimates about the number of Australians who would transition in at given points in time over the next several years were their own estimates, back from pre 2013.
The Productivity Commission says those estimates were highly ambitious, to the extent that the Productivity Commission note themselves they were so ambitious, they were unlikely to ever be met. And the Productivity Commission notes that, even those very ambitious estimates were effectively brought forward by Labor when they were in office, before the 2013 election.
So, the estimates were incredibly ambitious and, as was noted by the Productivity Commission, unlikely to ever have been met.
ANDREW PROBYN:
In fact, the rollout is running at about 80 per cent of the scheduled sign ups. This means if it continues at that rate, it would be at least 12 months longer?
MINISTER PORTER:
In effect, that’s right. The way in which that is described needs to be clear.
Every state has a bilateral agreement where we agree with the states that the NDIS will be, if you like, open for business in a certain region at a certain time. Nothing changes there. We are not planning to change anything there. All the bilateral rollout targets will be met which means that, if you were expecting in Gosford or Wagga Wagga, or wherever you are in Australia, that there is the ability to apply for the NDIS at a certain time, nothing changes there but…
ANDREW PROBYN:
Something has to change if you are going to allow the rollout as scheduled?
MINISTER PORTER:
Going back to your first point, what has been the experience – this has been the experience through the two years of trials and through the transition now – is that the estimates that were provided originally by the Productivity Commission have been, in reality, only reached to about 80 per cent and that’s been very consistent. In that respect, the number of people actually coming in has been hovering at about 80 per cent of the estimated number. That does mean, as you point out, that to reach that final estimated number, if that estimate was correct, by the way, is going to take longer than was anticipated, longer than 2019.
ANDREW PROBYN:
In fact, it is going to be even longer than the PC says because there has been a renewed focus on face-to-face consultations, which has been one of the major beefs with the NDIS, that reliance on telephone calls has meant that the quality of the plans has been rather poor.
MINISTER PORTER:
So we’ve had a fundamental change to the board, we have a new CEO at the NDIA, which is something that our government has worked hard to achieve and they have shifted focus – there is no doubt about that.
Their ultimate aim is to use the telephone in the planning process, only when it is absolutely necessary, which is sometimes the case in regional and remote Australia – but it has been overused. There’s a full acknowledgement of that.
Now, the proposition that you’re putting is that the shift away and the minimisation of the use of the phone could slow things down further. I don’t, at this point in time, accept that. I think we can do…
ANDREW PROBYN:
It is likely isn’t it? It could put it back in the 70s (per cent) now?
MINISTER PORTER:
We can do more than one thing at one time.
The task for us as a Government, and the task for the NDIA, is to do better and become more efficient inside the existing use of resources.
I don’t accept that the scaled-down use of telephone in planning is necessarily going to mean slower-than-expected numbers transitioning in. I think that we can still maintain a fairly good number of people moving in, as against the estimates, and improve the experience for those people on…
ANDREW PROBYN:
But it could get into the 70s, rather than 80 per cent sign-up rate, it could go into the 70s with more use of face-to-face?
MINISTER PORTER:
Well that’s not impossible, but what I would put to you is that we have had changes and a lot of reforms and a lot of improvements to the participant process in transitioning in. And all throughout that time, even with those constant improvements, we have still been hovering at around about 80 per cent of the estimates.
That might mean the estimates were substantially out. It might mean that that is a trend that will continue but what we will be trying to do is to improve the process while also maintaining the number of people rolling in, in a reasonable number, as opposed to estimates.
ANDREW PROBYN:
Another niggle point, of course, is the $22 billion cost.
The PC says that it is tracking inside budget but this is largely because of the slow rollout, isn’t it?
MINISTER PORTER:
Two things at the moment, or three things really.
One is that the average package cost that we are actually seeing are not terribly different from the estimated package costs – although the Productivity Commission note a whole range of risks in that area, which we are very well aware of and managing – there are two other things, as you have noted.
The number of people coming in is less than the estimates. And there is what we have seen as an under-utilisation. If someone has a package designed for them which might be $70,000 or $80,000 worth of services every year, generally speaking people seem to be not using all of those services.
ANDREW PROBYN:
This is worrying though, if you have two factors keeping you under the $22 billion estimate, it must be some concern to you that it could possibly blow out here?
MINISTER PORTER:
We have to monitor all the risks in terms of upward cost pressures all the time and on a constant basis. We watch them closely.
In terms of a starting position today, in terms of cost management, what the Productivity Commission says is we are well inside budget. There are reasons for that. And reasons why there are cost pressures we will have to manage on an ongoing basis, but it is a good position to be in at the moment.
ANDREW PROBYN:
Big challenge will be finding in the order of 60,000 extra disability workers to sustain the NDIS. How are you going to find these people?
MINISTER PORTER:
Yes, it is a very good question. The Productivity Commission themselves have some recommendations in that area.
As the rollout pace now is slower than was expected, that does take some pressure off in that respect but, yes, there’s going to be tens of thousands of new jobs created which will need to be filled in disability care.
Part of that relates to our welfare reforms, to ensure that we are moving as many people off welfare and into entry-level jobs in the market as quickly as possible. The Productivity Commission’s made some further recommendations that we’ll consider cautiously and over time but…
ANDREW PROBYN:
We are talking about migration here, bringing in migrant workers, aren’t we?
MINISTER PORTER:
That’s the recommendation the Productivity Commission has put. They say we should look at migration as a possible method to fill jobs if that becomes necessary. We’re not…
ANDREW PROBYN:
This is tens of thousands of migrant workers coming in to make the NDIS sustainable?
MINISTER PORTER:
No, it’s not.
What you’ve got is, at the moment, a need for more workers.
The Government’s first and foremost objective is to find those workers inside the Australian population and particularly amongst presently unemployed Australians.
So the first objective of the NDIA and the Government is to fill those positions with Australian workers. These are fantastic jobs – they are great entry-level jobs to the work force. They are great career jobs in care.
We have a responsibility to ensure that training, that the provision of relevant certificates and qualifications is being met so that we are skilling people up to get them into these jobs.
ANDREW PROBYN:
Isn’t there a risk though that disabled Australians will be increasingly reliant on the least-skilled, lowest remunerated workers?
MINISTER PORTER:
I don’t think that’s an accurate assessment, because the types of services that the NDIS fund are from very sophisticated services like speech therapy or occupational therapy, assisted technologies, right down to what are low-skilled jobs – but important jobs, like home care, lawn mowing services.
So the blend of skills that are required and we pay for through the NDIS is very, very broad.
The point is, those 60,000 jobs, which will eventuate in this area, are not just unskilled jobs, or low-skilled jobs or moderate-skilled jobs, they are a complete suite of the spectrum.
Part of the process is to ensure that the market responds to this very large increase in funding and expenditure to provide those jobs.
ANDREW PROBYN:
Lastly, on Nadia – I must ask about Nadia, she’s the artificial intelligence avatar, voiced by actress, Cate Blanchett.
It looks like that project has been shelved. She would be the virtual assistant for the NDIS. What’s going on there?
MINISTER PORTER:
It hasn’t been shelved. My expectation is it will be rolled out in the near future.
It’s, as you say, an avatar. It is part of the online presence to assist people in the participation and the transition into the NDIS. I’d expect that that will be rolled out very soon. It’s had to be reconfigured…
ANDREW PROBYN:
How soon Minister?
MINISTER PORTER:
That’s a decision for the NDIA ultimately.
ANDREW PROBYN:
By the end of the year?
MINISTER PORTER:
I can’t give you that date because that’s a decision for them, but I would have thought by the end of the year.
But that rollout will be staged and managed in a way to ensure that that particular tool, which is one small part of the tool of transition, is enhancing people’s experience and making their life easier as they transition in.
With all I.T, you have to be absolutely sure it works and is fit for purpose. That’s what the NDIA are intending to do with Nadia.
ANDREW PROBYN:
Thanks for your time.
MINISTER PORTER:
Pleasure, Andrew.
(ENDS)